← Regionals - Mortal Ambition - Wilczek
Water Penguin MillTier 1
at Regionals - Mortal Ambition - Wilczek
decks
3
(10.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
9-7-0
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.7%
avg ELO +4.3 per match
expected value
51.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1288
· median 1276
· range 1262–1327
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1182
Q3 1354
1535
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.4% | +6.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.5% | -2.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Fire Exia | 6.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Water Allies | 6.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.5% | -4.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 72.0% | +21.1 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Wind Allies | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
